Electricity Price Forecasting

Customer

Energy Company

Developing forecasting model to predict electricity prices and help traders make better decisions resulting in a 25% reduction in deviation compared to previous models in place

Challenge

  • Client needs accurate electricity price forecasts for internal trading team
  • Goal to improve price forecasting using a fixed train/valid/test reference dataset
  • Need for a new probability forecast to be implemented

Solution

  • Built backtesting pipeline and test multiple forecasting configurations (multivariate time series)
  • Developed forecasting solution which generated probabilistic forecasts with consistent prediction intervals

Business Impact

  • Unit8 model significantly improved forecasts compared to previous solutions in place
  • Reduced deviation between forecasted and actual prices
  • by 25% compared to previous model

Hydro-electric Plant Predictive Maintenance

Customer

Swiss Energy Company

Building a predictive maintenance model to detect abnormal measurements earlier, leading to better maintenance planning and cost reduction

Challenge

  • Currently no reliable long-term anomaly detection system
  • Slow-shifting anomalies are hard to detect with human surveillance as they can take months
  • Goal to have a predictive maintenance system to spot these issues early and plan maintenance more effectively

Solution

  • Unit8 built a predictive machine learning model for physical variables of interest (e.g., temperature or vibration)
  • Define a threshold for values to be throughout the day and sends automatic alerts if a value differs significantly from model predictions

Business impact

  • Engineers able to detect abnormal changes in measurements much earlier
  • Maintenance can now be planned effectively
  • Shorter stops in electricity production leading to lower costs due to plant shutdown

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