Energy Company

Developing forecasting model to predict electricity prices and help traders make better decisions resulting in a 25% reduction in deviation compared to previous models in place

Challenge

• Client needs accurate electricity price forecasts for internal trading team
• Goal to improve price forecasting using a fixed train/valid/test reference dataset
• Need for a new probability forecast to be implemented

Solution

• Built backtesting pipeline and test multiple forecasting configurations (multivariate time series)
• Developed forecasting solution which generated probabilistic forecasts with consistent prediction intervals

Business Impact

• Unit8 model significantly improved forecasts compared to previous solutions in place
• Reduced deviation between forecasted and actual prices
• by 25% compared to previous model